The religious Census data-2001: With special reference to Kerala

Organiser,2005 Issues > April 03, 05



Agenda
The religious Census data-2001: With special reference to Kerala
By Sreevals and Priyesh C.A.

The Religious Census Data-2001 published by the Government of India has initiated a debate on population growth. There is also criticism against the Registrar General Census Commissioner of India for publishing the religious Census data 2001. The critics of publishing the data argue that it will collapse our nation?s secularism. They allege that it is a divisive attempt on the part of the Census Commissioner.

It is a matter of deep regret that for the first time in the history of India, the Census data was manipulated immediately after its first release. The first officially released Religious Census Data-2001 covered all parts of India according to which Hindus constituted 80.5 per cent, Muslims constituted 13.4 per cent and Christians constituted 2.3 per cent of the population. The remaining 3.77 per cent were others. Later, the Census Commissioner released modified Census figures, which excluded Jammu & Kashmir and Assam. According to this, the Hindus were 81.4 per cent, Muslims 12.4 per cent, Christians 2.3 per cent and others 3.9 per cent. According to the Census Commissioner, the reason for excluding Assam in the modified data was to compare this with the 1991 Census. But the exclusion of Assam is not necessary to compare the Census data of 1991 and 2001.

We, the research scholars of the University of Kerala, have done a study on the Religious Census Data-2001. In our study, for a comparison between the two Census data, we excluded Jammu & Kashmir alone from the 2001 Census, as there is no available data for this state for 1991. According to this, the religious composition obtained is as: Hindus 80.6 (82.00); Muslims 13.1 (12.1); Christians 2.37 (2.34); others 3.88 (3.54). (The figures in the brackets show the old values for 1991 Census, excluding Jammu & Kashmir alone). We should also note that Assam, which has been excluded along with Jammu & Kashmir by the Census Commissioner, recorded the highest increase in the composition of Muslims during 1991-2001. So the second published religious Census data is not adjusted as some ?secularists? claim, but it is manipulated. But for a comparison of the Census data of 1991 and 2001, exclusion of Jammu & Kashmir alone is essential. The reason for excluding Assam along with Jammu & Kashmir is mysterious. Based on our study, the growth rate of Muslim population is higher than that of the Hindu population by 11.8 percentage point. Besides, the growth rate of Christians is higher than that of the Hindus by 3.36 percentage point.

As this is the situation at the national level, a statewise analysis of the changes in religious demographic pattern is also essential. The important findings are summarised below:

The reason for excluding Assam along with Jammu & Kashmir is mysterious. Based on our study, the growth rate of Muslim population is higher than that of the Hindu population.

The proportion of Muslims in all the states is increasing tremendously.
In all the states, except Goa and Punjab, the proportion of Hindus is declining.
In the north-eastern states the growth rate of Hindus is below 20 per cent. This includes Mizoram and Manipur where the Hindu population declined by 9.21 and 5.91 per cent respectively (i.e. negative growth rate). At the same time, the growth rate of Muslim population ranges from 29 per cent to 122 per cent (Mizoram-122%, Assam-29.32%). In this region, Christian population growth rate ranges from 18 per cent to 169 per cent (Manipur-18%, Sikkim-169%).
The reasons and consequences of this high change in the religious demographic pattern is a matter to be explored.

Situation in Kerala

Kerala, the land of Adi Shankara, Sree Narayana Guru, Chattampi Swami and a host of other stalwarts in the cultural and spiritual spheres, had been the hot-bed of anti-national and materialistic thought currents for quite a long time now. Analysis of the religious Census data 2001 of Kerala deserves special attention and it urges debate on population growth and its reasons. In Kerala, the Hindus are only 56.2 per cent; Muslims constitute 24.7 per cent and Christians are 19 per cent. Out of the total six highest Christian populated districts of India, five belong to Kerala and out of the total five highest Muslim-populated districts, one is in Kerala. In Kerala, the district which showed the highest population growth is the district with the highest proportion of Muslims (Malappuram) and the district which showed lowest population growth is the district with the least proportion of Muslims (Pathana-mthitta).

In Kerala, the proportion of Hindus has declined by more than one percentage point, which is in keeping with the trend observed over the last 120 years. The Hindus have been losing about 1.2 percentage point of their proportion every decade, and the same loss occurred during the last decade also. The overall population growth in the decade 1991-2001 is 9.42 percentage for the state. But in the Muslim-dominated district, Malappuram, it is 17.09 per cent. Out of the 14 districts in Kerala, Hindus constitute the majority in all the districts except Malappuram, while the Muslims form the second largest community in Kasargod, Kannur, Kozhikkode, Wayanad, Palakkad and Kollam districts. Christians are placed second in Thrissur, Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam, Allappuzha, Pathanam-thitta and Thiruvananthapuram. The three districts of Kerala that recorded the higher growth rate of population are Malappuram, Wayanad and Kozhikkode respectively. While Malappuram district recorded a 17.09 per cent increase in the population, it is only 3.84 per cent in the case of Pathanamthitta district which recorded the lowest growth rate in the state.

Political Impact of Religious Demography of Kerala

It is well known that the size of population determines the number of Legislative Assembly constituencies in each district. So the high increase of population in the Muslim-dominated districts invites special attention. The Election Commission has recently started to re-delimit the number of Legislative Assembly constituencies in each district on the basis of the Census population of 1991. As per this, the Muslim-dominated Malappuram district with the highest increase in population will obtain four more seats in addition to the existing 12 seats and reach a total of 16 Assembly constituen-cies. The present study came to the conclusion that, if this present trend in population growth continues, the number of Assembly constituen-cies will become 21 in Malappuram (12 at present), 14 in Kozhikkode (12 at present), four in Wayanad (three at present) in the year 2021. This is based on the population projected by the Population Foundation of India (PFI). At the same time in the year 2021, the number of constituencies will be reduced to four in Pathanamthitta (seven at present), eight in Alappuzha (11 at present) and seven in Kottayam (10 at present). It should be noted that the districts which implemented the family planning programme more effectively are losing their Legislative Assembly constituen-cies. On the other hand, districts like Malappuram and Kozhikkode which failed to implement family planning programmes are gaining additional seats and hence more political influence.

Another serious matter is that of the population in the 0-6 age group, while 10.8 per cent of Hindus and 11.2 per cent of Christians belong to this age group, the proportion of Muslims in this age group is 15 per cent. The proportion of population in the 0-6 age group is an indication of the size of the coming generation in each religious group.

The argument pertaining to the reason for high population growth rate of Muslims put forward by the Left and Muslim intellectual mafia is their low standard of living. Though the Census facts are undisputable, another argument against the necessity of controlling population growth is that it is a part of the Hindutva agenda to spread suspicions and hatred about the minorities, particularly Muslims. Another section of our intellectuals are seriously talking about the problems of high population increase in a developing, resource-scarce country like India. But when we say Muslim population is tremendously increasing, they accuse ?we are undemocratic, fascist, anti-secular and ant-minority?. It is unfortunate that, non-committed intellectuals of our country argue that socio-economic backwardness and low standard of living of Muslims are the reasons for their high population growth rate. These intellectuals are doing disservice to the society and people. The are diverting attention from the real problems and issues that pose threat to our civilisation, culture and even national unity.

In the north-eastern states the growth rate of Hindus is below 20 per cent. This includes Mizoram and Manipur where the Hindu population even declined by 9.21 and 5.91 per cent respectively (i.e. negative growth rate). At the same time, the growth rate of Muslim population ranges from 29 per cent to 122 per cent (Mizoram-122 per cent, Assam-29.32 per cent). In this region, Christian population growth rate ranges from 18 per cent to 169 per cent (Manipur-18 per cent, Sikkim-169 per cent).

Our study has completely disproved the arguments that high population growth rate of Muslims is due to low standard of living and low female literacy rate. However, the report of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted during 1998-99 reveals that 17.9 per cent of Hindus have a low standard of living as compared to Muslims who are only 12.9 per cent. Thus, it is among Hindus where a bigger proportion has a low standard of living. Also in the case of female literacy rate, the Hindus (86.7) and Muslims (85.5) are neck to neck. Besides India?s first 100 per cent computer-literate village belongs to Malappuram district.

Our professional and ?secular? intellectuals are not learning from the history of India or they are playing down the unfortunate incidents that happened in our country. They are totally neglecting the concerns and sentiments expressed by people who are seriously following the demographic development and its possible consequences. Let us point out one example from the history. Decades prior to the unfortunate Partition of India, the demographic pattern of Bengal was fastly undergoing serious distortion and creating social imbalance. Even before the Muslim League officially adopted the Partition resolution, observers of the scene were convinced that a catastrophe was looming on the horizon. An eminent Greek lady who came to India and fascinated by the great culture of this country, became a Hindu, adopting the name Savitri Devi, wrote the book, A Warning to Hindus. In that book she had given a warning to the Hindus that the fastly changing religious demography will have serious consequences. But she was ignored. This led to the divison of India on the basis of religion. Neither the ancient Greek nor the original East Bengal exists today. Both have lost their cultural identity and succumbed to the might of an alien culture which is totally different.

The message is loud and clear. Unless we read the writing on the wall and take corrective steps in time, history can repeat itself. Many of our secular intellectuals consider it as a sign of progressive outlook not to call a spade a spade, even though facts and experience are self-evident. They would go on arguing against the very obvious by inventing specious arguments in support of their untenable position. Certain critics of our study assert that the futuristic projections are not going to come true and ridicule the study and us as people motivated by evil designs. This is a suicidal folly, because if we do not take the warning seriously, the future generations will have to pay heavily.

This is not to say that the predictions are unalternately decreed. Much depends upon the present generation, especially on what the decision makers do about it. There are many options ahead of us?wisdom, political and economic policies, social and religious strategies, etc. All these depend upon a correct reading of the situation and on a strong national will supported by enlightened public opinion.

(The writers are research scholars and can be contacted at Department of Demography and Department of Economics respectively, University of Kerala, Kariavattom Campus, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala.)